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10月生豬生產(chǎn)持續(xù)恢復(fù) 豬肉市場供應(yīng)明顯改善

2020-11-19 08:39:58 來源：農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部新聞辦公室 閱讀量：21288 評論

導(dǎo)讀：日前，從農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部獲悉，10月份全國生豬存欄和能繁母豬存欄繼續(xù)增長，前期新增產(chǎn)能陸續(xù)釋放，生豬出欄逐月增加，近一段時間豬肉市場供應(yīng)明顯改善，價格震蕩下行。

　　【農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng) 市場行情】 日前，從農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部獲悉，10月份全國生豬存欄和能繁母豬存欄繼續(xù)增長，前期新增產(chǎn)能陸續(xù)釋放，生豬出欄逐月增加，近一段時間豬肉市場供應(yīng)明顯改善，價格震蕩下行。
 
　　能繁母豬和生豬存欄較快增長，種豬和仔豬產(chǎn)銷兩旺
 
　　據(jù)監(jiān)測，10月份能繁母豬存欄3950萬頭，連續(xù)13個月增長，比去年同期增長32%；生豬存欄3.87億頭，連續(xù)9個月增長，比去年同期增長27%。目前生豬產(chǎn)能已經(jīng)恢復(fù)到2017年年末的88%左右。照此趨勢，明年二季度，全國生豬存欄將基本恢復(fù)到正常年份的水平。
 
　　養(yǎng)殖場戶積極補(bǔ)欄擴(kuò)養(yǎng)，10月份又有728個新建規(guī)模豬場投產(chǎn)，今年以來新建規(guī)模豬場投產(chǎn)累計(jì)已達(dá)1.3萬個，另有1.5萬個去年空欄的規(guī)模豬場開始復(fù)養(yǎng)。母豬供種能力明顯增強(qiáng)，前三季度種豬企業(yè)的二元母豬銷量同比增長102.6%。新生仔豬持續(xù)增加，供應(yīng)逐漸寬松，價格大幅下降。一些省份仔豬價格已從高峰的每頭2000元左右降至1000元以下。
 
　　生豬市場供應(yīng)顯著增加，豬肉價格連續(xù)兩個多月大幅回落
 
　　從仔豬到肥豬育肥周期一般為6個月。前期新增產(chǎn)能逐步釋放，上市肥豬供應(yīng)顯著增加。今年9月份生豬出欄同比*由降轉(zhuǎn)增，這是出欄下降25個月后*同比增長。10月份同比增長38.5%，增幅繼續(xù)擴(kuò)大，豬肉市場供應(yīng)明顯改善。9月份以來，豬肉價格已連續(xù)兩個多月下降。11月份第2周，全國集貿(mào)市場豬肉價格回落至每公斤46.47元，同比下降18.0%，比2月份第3周的高價格回落13元多。
 
　　隨著冬季特別是元旦春節(jié)消費(fèi)旺季的到來，豬肉消費(fèi)將持續(xù)增長，但是生產(chǎn)恢復(fù)將會帶動豬肉供應(yīng)明顯增加，預(yù)計(jì)豬肉市場供應(yīng)形勢會進(jìn)一步改善。供應(yīng)方面，隨著新增產(chǎn)能逐步釋放，上市肥豬將進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)量，據(jù)測算，明年元旦春節(jié)期間(2020年12月-2021年2月)豬肉供應(yīng)量比上年同期增加三成左右。需求方面，元旦春節(jié)期間消費(fèi)增加可能會帶動豬肉價格出現(xiàn)一波上漲(正常年份漲幅一般在6%-10%)，但總體將低于上年同期水平。
 
　　養(yǎng)豬成本剛性增加，前期高價購買仔豬的育肥戶市場風(fēng)險加大
 
　　10月份出欄一頭商品肥豬成本1850元，比非洲豬瘟發(fā)生以前增加260元。其中，玉米價格上漲使飼料成本增加80元，防疫成本增加130元，糞污處理成本增加50元。
 
　　需要關(guān)注的是，前期高價購買仔豬的專業(yè)育肥戶養(yǎng)殖利潤大幅收窄。11月份第2周全國活豬平均價格已跌至每公斤29.74元，如果再下跌3-4元，專業(yè)育肥戶可能就會出現(xiàn)虧損。

上一篇： 11月18日：“農(nóng)產(chǎn)品批發(fā)價格200指數(shù)”比昨天上漲0.06個點(diǎn)

下一篇：11月17日：“農(nóng)產(chǎn)品批發(fā)價格200指數(shù)”與昨天基本持平

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