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豬肉價(jià)格連續(xù)回落，未來(lái)的豬肉供應(yīng)和價(jià)格走勢(shì)如何？
2021-04-20
16:59:56
來(lái)源：農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng)整理發(fā)布 閱讀量：24211
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導(dǎo)讀： 4月20日，農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部就一季度農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行情況舉行了新聞發(fā)布會(huì)，發(fā)展規(guī)劃司司長(zhǎng)曾衍德、市場(chǎng)與信息化司副司長(zhǎng)宋丹陽(yáng)、種植業(yè)管理司副司長(zhǎng)劉莉華、畜牧獸醫(yī)局副局長(zhǎng)陳光華、辦公廳副主任劉均勇等出席發(fā)布會(huì)并答記者問(wèn)。
【農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng) 市場(chǎng)行情】 4月20日，農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部就一季度農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行情況舉行了新聞發(fā)布會(huì)，發(fā)展規(guī)劃司司長(zhǎng)曾衍德、市場(chǎng)與信息化司副司長(zhǎng)宋丹陽(yáng)、種植業(yè)管理司副司長(zhǎng)劉莉華、畜牧獸醫(yī)局副局長(zhǎng)陳光華、辦公廳副主任劉均勇等出席發(fā)布會(huì)并答記者問(wèn)。
對(duì)于大家普遍關(guān)注的豬肉價(jià)格問(wèn)題，農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部畜牧獸醫(yī)局副局長(zhǎng)陳光華表示，今年1月份以來(lái)，豬肉價(jià)格已經(jīng)連續(xù)回落近3個(gè)月，目前豬肉價(jià)格已經(jīng)回落到本輪生豬產(chǎn)能恢復(fù)以來(lái)的最低點(diǎn)。根據(jù)監(jiān)測(cè)，4月第三周(12日-18日)，全國(guó)集貿(mào)市場(chǎng)豬肉價(jià)格每公斤是38.96元，已經(jīng)連續(xù)12周回落，同比下降27.6%，比1月份第三周的最高價(jià)格降低了15.26元，比去年的最高價(jià)(2020年2月份第3周)降低20.68元，最近幾天豬肉又有震蕩反彈。4月10日，全國(guó)活豬價(jià)格達(dá)到每公斤21.14元新低之后，4月20日，就是今天已經(jīng)上漲到23.35元。
近期豬價(jià)大幅回落的主要原因是生豬出欄明顯增加，還有春節(jié)之后豬肉消費(fèi)下降，這一增一降兩個(gè)因素碰頭。另外，也有養(yǎng)殖戶恐慌性出欄形成了“踩踏效應(yīng)”。按照常年豬價(jià)的走勢(shì)，端午節(jié)前后，隨著豬肉消費(fèi)增加，豬價(jià)有可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)一波上漲。但是從前期新生仔豬量來(lái)推算，預(yù)計(jì)2季度，全國(guó)規(guī)模豬場(chǎng)肥豬出欄量同比增幅將達(dá)到50%，市場(chǎng)供應(yīng)總體寬裕，價(jià)格不太可能超過(guò)前期的高點(diǎn)。綜合來(lái)看，豬肉供應(yīng)最緊張的時(shí)期已經(jīng)過(guò)去了，后期供應(yīng)會(huì)越來(lái)越寬松。按照目前生產(chǎn)恢復(fù)勢(shì)頭，今年6、7月份，生豬存欄有望恢復(fù)到正常年份的水平。之后再過(guò)4個(gè)月左右的時(shí)間，每個(gè)月的出欄量也會(huì)逐步恢復(fù)到常年的水平。
陳光華表示，下一步將繼續(xù)堅(jiān)持生豬生產(chǎn)恢復(fù)和非洲豬瘟疫情防控兩手抓、兩促進(jìn)，對(duì)標(biāo)對(duì)表生產(chǎn)全面恢復(fù)目標(biāo)任務(wù)，逐級(jí)抓責(zé)任落實(shí)，協(xié)同抓政策落地，持續(xù)抓增養(yǎng)補(bǔ)欄，確?；謴?fù)勢(shì)頭不中斷、生豬存欄繼續(xù)增加。緊繃疫情防控這根弦，抓緊抓實(shí)常態(tài)化防控各項(xiàng)工作，全鏈條、全環(huán)節(jié)強(qiáng)化排查、監(jiān)測(cè)、檢疫、監(jiān)管，在全國(guó)試行非洲豬瘟等重大動(dòng)物疫病分區(qū)防控，繼續(xù)開展無(wú)疫區(qū)和無(wú)疫小區(qū)建設(shè)，堅(jiān)決防止疫情反彈。同時(shí)，著眼長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)，探索建立生豬產(chǎn)能儲(chǔ)備制度，強(qiáng)化監(jiān)督預(yù)警，完善調(diào)控政策，穩(wěn)定基礎(chǔ)產(chǎn)能，早研判早介入應(yīng)對(duì)，努力防止生豬生產(chǎn)和價(jià)格大起大落。
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