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9月份AMI指數(shù)為48.2%，“金九”成色不足

2024-10-10 13:32:50 來(lái)源：中國(guó)農(nóng)機(jī)流通協(xié)會(huì) 閱讀量：10400 評(píng)論

導(dǎo)讀：2024年9月份中國(guó)農(nóng)機(jī)市場(chǎng)景氣指數(shù)(AMI)為48.2%，環(huán)比下降1.0個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，同比下降1.9個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。

　　【農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng) 市場(chǎng)行情】 中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械流通協(xié)會(huì)發(fā)布的2024年9月份中國(guó)農(nóng)機(jī)市場(chǎng)景氣指數(shù)(AMI)為48.2%，環(huán)比下降1.0個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，同比下降1.9個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。從環(huán)比看，6個(gè)一級(jí)指數(shù)中除經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)外全部呈現(xiàn)上升趨勢(shì)，其中庫(kù)存指數(shù)提升幅度最大，比上月同期上漲5.8個(gè)百分點(diǎn)；從同比看，6個(gè)一級(jí)指數(shù)除庫(kù)存指數(shù)外，全部呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢(shì)，其中，經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)下降3.8個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，降幅最大。本月銷售指數(shù)繼續(xù)徘徊不景氣區(qū)間，經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)擊穿榮枯線跌入不景氣區(qū)間，其余4個(gè)一級(jí)指數(shù)均位于景氣區(qū)間。
 
　　特約分析師張華光認(rèn)為，9月份農(nóng)機(jī)市場(chǎng)景氣指數(shù)走勢(shì)出乎多數(shù)人預(yù)料，旺季不旺。同比、環(huán)比雙雙下滑，“金九”成色不足，并創(chuàng)下2020年以來(lái)的5年新低。多數(shù)經(jīng)銷企業(yè)表示今年市場(chǎng)是歷年最為慘淡的一年，從調(diào)研走訪情況印證了這個(gè)結(jié)論。傳統(tǒng)旺季尚且如此，淡季市場(chǎng)又當(dāng)何如？接下來(lái)的市場(chǎng)值得警惕。但本月庫(kù)存指數(shù)環(huán)比提升5.8個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，同比提升1.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，并高于榮枯線，以51.9%的景氣度挺進(jìn)景氣區(qū)間，意味著經(jīng)銷商經(jīng)過(guò)不懈努力，取得較好的去庫(kù)存效果，庫(kù)存趨于合理。與之同時(shí)推進(jìn)的還有效益指數(shù)，環(huán)比提升1.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，以51.1%的景氣度殺入景氣區(qū)間，折射出經(jīng)銷商通過(guò)優(yōu)化產(chǎn)品，強(qiáng)化內(nèi)部管理，創(chuàng)造較好的效益。
 
　　本月AMI指數(shù)冷熱不均，同比“4降1升”。從監(jiān)測(cè)的5個(gè)二級(jí)指數(shù)看，環(huán)比仍呈現(xiàn)“2上3下”走勢(shì)特點(diǎn)。其中，耕整地機(jī)械指數(shù)環(huán)比大幅度增長(zhǎng)，并高于榮枯線挺進(jìn)景氣區(qū)間；拖拉機(jī)指數(shù)在經(jīng)歷四連增后，本月出現(xiàn)小幅下降，但堅(jiān)守于景氣區(qū)間。與之相反，種植機(jī)械、田間管理機(jī)械和收割機(jī)環(huán)比則出現(xiàn)不同程度的下滑。從同比看，除種植機(jī)械指數(shù)有所提升外，其余四個(gè)指數(shù)均呈現(xiàn)不同程度的下滑。
 
　　農(nóng)機(jī)市場(chǎng)素有“金九銀十”之稱，10月份，正值農(nóng)機(jī)市場(chǎng)旺季，成為月度景氣度的主要支撐。從農(nóng)事分析，下半年各類農(nóng)作物陸續(xù)進(jìn)入收獲季節(jié)，除小麥?zhǔn)斋@機(jī)外的其他收獲機(jī)市場(chǎng)將迎來(lái)銷售高峰期，成為推動(dòng)10月份市場(chǎng)的主要?jiǎng)恿?。但過(guò)去10年間，10月份景氣度環(huán)比下跌的概率達(dá)90%且均位于不景氣區(qū)間，加之本月作為先行指數(shù)的經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)大幅度下滑，令已經(jīng)開(kāi)始的10份農(nóng)機(jī)市場(chǎng)籠罩在濃濃的利空因素中。由此預(yù)測(cè)，10月份AMI環(huán)比、同比或出現(xiàn)不同程度的下降，繼續(xù)停留于不景氣區(qū)間，多數(shù)一、二、三級(jí)指數(shù)環(huán)比或出現(xiàn)小幅下降。
 
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