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6月份AMI指數(shù)為41.2%，折射出今年市場之艱難

2024-07-08 10:01:16 來源：中國農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械流通協(xié)會(huì) 閱讀量：18007 評(píng)論

導(dǎo)讀：中國農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械流通協(xié)會(huì)發(fā)布的2024年6月份中國農(nóng)機(jī)市場景氣指數(shù)(AMI)為41.2%，環(huán)比下降1.3個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，同比下降1.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。

　　【農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng) 市場行情】 中國農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械流通協(xié)會(huì)發(fā)布的2024年6月份中國農(nóng)機(jī)市場景氣指數(shù)(AMI)為41.2%，環(huán)比下降1.3個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，同比下降1.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。從環(huán)比看，6個(gè)一級(jí)指數(shù)中除農(nóng)機(jī)補(bǔ)貼指數(shù)和經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)有所上升，其余全部呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢，其中人氣指數(shù)下滑幅度最大，比上月同期下滑6.6個(gè)百分點(diǎn)；從同比看，6個(gè)一級(jí)指數(shù)中除人氣指數(shù)和經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)有所下降，其余全部呈現(xiàn)上升趨勢，其中，銷售能力指數(shù)提升幅度最大，為1.0個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。本月6個(gè)一級(jí)指數(shù)全部位于不景氣區(qū)間。
 
　　特約分析師張華光認(rèn)為：正如我們上月的預(yù)測，6月份AMI環(huán)比、同比均出現(xiàn)小幅下滑，景氣度進(jìn)一步下探，并以41.2%的景氣度繼續(xù)滯留于不景氣區(qū)間。AMI環(huán)比在經(jīng)歷了連續(xù)三個(gè)月下滑后，景氣度已然跌至近三年同期的歷史低位，較2022年同比下滑9.4個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。盡管6月份農(nóng)機(jī)市場位于淡季，但同比連續(xù)兩年下滑，折射出今年市場之艱難?；厮萆习肽晔袌鲎邉萏攸c(diǎn)，市場復(fù)蘇動(dòng)能依然偏弱。過去六個(gè)月，除4、5月份同比高于去年，其余月份均位于近三年的低位。
 
　　6月份，AMI進(jìn)一步下行，環(huán)比、同比雙雙下滑，景氣度位于三年來同期低位，下行態(tài)勢表現(xiàn)的較為強(qiáng)烈，呈現(xiàn)出以下幾個(gè)突出特點(diǎn)。其一，景氣度持續(xù)下行，創(chuàng)三年同期新低。其二，人氣指數(shù)觸底反彈，市場信心有所修復(fù)。其三，二級(jí)指數(shù)冰火同爐，環(huán)比多降少增。從三級(jí)指數(shù)解析細(xì)分市場，所監(jiān)測的10個(gè)三級(jí)指數(shù)的表現(xiàn)冷熱不均。環(huán)比“4上6下”。其中，大型拖拉機(jī)、免耕播種機(jī)、遙控飛行噴霧機(jī)和自走式玉米收獲機(jī)指數(shù)有所增長外，其它全部下滑。同比“5升5降”。其中，深松機(jī)、旋耕機(jī)、插秧機(jī)、自走履帶式以及輪式谷物聯(lián)合收割機(jī)指數(shù)出現(xiàn)不同程度的下降，大拖和中拖、免耕播種機(jī)、遙控飛行噴霧機(jī)、玉米收獲機(jī)出現(xiàn)不同程度的增長。
 
　　預(yù)計(jì)7月份，AMI環(huán)比、同比或出現(xiàn)不同程度的增長，但進(jìn)入景氣區(qū)間的概率并不大。多數(shù)一、二、三級(jí)指數(shù)環(huán)比或出現(xiàn)小幅攀升。
 
　　今年的農(nóng)機(jī)市場能否進(jìn)入增長軌道，主要取決于利好與利空因素的對(duì)沖而形成的結(jié)果。但從各種因素分析，今年的利空因素表現(xiàn)的較為強(qiáng)烈，加大了7月份AMI上升幅度的不確定性。

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