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【數(shù)據(jù)分析】拖拉機(jī)產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)越來(lái)越優(yōu)化，未來(lái)“大馬拉小車”問(wèn)題是否會(huì)得到解決？

2021-01-21 17:44:13 來(lái)源：農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng)原創(chuàng) 作者：林言 閱讀量：53026 評(píng)論

導(dǎo)讀：拖拉機(jī)是用于牽引和驅(qū)動(dòng)作業(yè)機(jī)械完成各項(xiàng)移動(dòng)式作業(yè)的自走式動(dòng)力機(jī)械，是我國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械化重要的裝備之一。它作為農(nóng)機(jī)裝備中生產(chǎn)早、使用范圍廣、用途較多的基礎(chǔ)類機(jī)械，其產(chǎn)銷量是反映農(nóng)機(jī)市場(chǎng)行情的重要參考。

　　【農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng) 編輯視角】 拖拉機(jī)是用于牽引和驅(qū)動(dòng)作業(yè)機(jī)械完成各項(xiàng)移動(dòng)式作業(yè)的自走式動(dòng)力機(jī)械，是我國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械化重要的裝備之一。它作為農(nóng)機(jī)裝備中生產(chǎn)早、使用范圍廣、用途較多的基礎(chǔ)類機(jī)械，其產(chǎn)銷量是反映農(nóng)機(jī)市場(chǎng)行情的重要參考。
 

　　2020年社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)雖受到了疫情影響，但農(nóng)機(jī)領(lǐng)域的表現(xiàn)卻可圈可點(diǎn)，尤其是拖拉機(jī)市場(chǎng)增長(zhǎng)較為明顯；加上2020年底多個(gè)省份發(fā)出通知要調(diào)整部分農(nóng)機(jī)尤其是拖拉機(jī)的補(bǔ)貼額度，所以相信近期大家對(duì)拖拉機(jī)是很關(guān)心的。筆者整理了一些拖拉機(jī)的產(chǎn)量數(shù)據(jù)，并從中得出了一些結(jié)論，希望對(duì)大家有所幫助。
 
　　據(jù)國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)顯示，2020年全國(guó)大型拖拉機(jī)產(chǎn)量7萬(wàn)臺(tái)，同比增長(zhǎng)56%；中型拖拉機(jī)產(chǎn)量29萬(wàn)臺(tái)，同比增長(zhǎng)17.7%；小型拖拉機(jī)產(chǎn)量17.8萬(wàn)臺(tái)，同比增長(zhǎng)-47.2%。總體來(lái)看，中大型拖拉機(jī)增長(zhǎng)較為明顯，而小型拖拉機(jī)產(chǎn)量則大幅下滑，下滑原因后文會(huì)解釋。
 


數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局，圖片制作：農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng)
 
　　從月份來(lái)看，大中型拖拉機(jī)都是春耕前產(chǎn)量多。2020年年初幾個(gè)月受疫情影響大，而各個(gè)農(nóng)機(jī)企業(yè)能夠在防疫的同時(shí)保障生產(chǎn)、為全國(guó)春耕提供裝備，做到“不誤農(nóng)時(shí)”，是值得敬佩的。第四季度產(chǎn)量又有所上升，這也是生產(chǎn)企業(yè)在冬季加緊生產(chǎn)，好保障來(lái)年開(kāi)春的裝備供應(yīng)。
 


數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局，圖片制作：農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng)
 
　　從年度來(lái)看，2013年-2020年，大中小型拖拉機(jī)總產(chǎn)量整體呈較為明顯的下滑趨勢(shì)，從2013年的252萬(wàn)臺(tái)，下降到了2020年的53.8萬(wàn)臺(tái)。之所以產(chǎn)量驟減，重要原因是產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)的變動(dòng)。隨著農(nóng)機(jī)行業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)不斷優(yōu)化，裝備比例不斷擴(kuò)大，大中型拖拉機(jī)逐步實(shí)現(xiàn)了對(duì)小型拖拉機(jī)的代替，使得之前占據(jù)重要比重的小型拖拉機(jī)產(chǎn)量成倍下降。雖然總體產(chǎn)量下降，但拖拉機(jī)行業(yè)卻朝著更更智能的方向發(fā)展。
 
　　然而在這期間，由于農(nóng)機(jī)補(bǔ)貼政策的廣泛實(shí)施，逐漸產(chǎn)生了“大馬拉小車”問(wèn)題。所謂“大馬拉小車”，即發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)功率與底盤設(shè)計(jì)嚴(yán)重不匹配，發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)功率大大超過(guò)底盤所能承受極值的產(chǎn)品，這也就涉及到我們通常所說(shuō)的“K值”：拖拉機(jī)基本配置和參數(shù)中，K為拖拉機(jī)小使用質(zhì)量(kg)與功率(馬力)的比值。比如，160馬力的拖拉機(jī)，配置的底盤、車橋和車架卻與功率不匹配，要比合理設(shè)計(jì)的同功率拖拉機(jī)小。配套牽引作業(yè)機(jī)具時(shí)，馬力雖然大，但是牽引力明顯不足，機(jī)器干活沒(méi)勁，作業(yè)效率低、故障率高。
 
　　一些不良生產(chǎn)廠家為了“騙補(bǔ)”，導(dǎo)致行業(yè)“大馬拉小車”問(wèn)題普遍存在，國(guó)家有關(guān)部門為了遏制這一現(xiàn)象，一直以來(lái)不斷采取各種措施。近兩個(gè)月來(lái)多個(gè)省份發(fā)出通知對(duì)輪式拖拉機(jī)補(bǔ)貼檔次參數(shù)中的K值進(jìn)行上調(diào)，對(duì)拖拉機(jī)的小質(zhì)量和功率比值有明確的要求。這對(duì)解決拖拉機(jī)“大馬拉小車”問(wèn)題是很好的辦法和措施。
 
　　結(jié)語(yǔ)：農(nóng)機(jī)行業(yè)“黃金十年”發(fā)展時(shí)期，雖然總體產(chǎn)值增長(zhǎng)較快，但產(chǎn)品缺乏創(chuàng)新、同質(zhì)化嚴(yán)重，導(dǎo)致后來(lái)農(nóng)機(jī)市場(chǎng)尤其是拖拉機(jī)市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)飽和以及“騙補(bǔ)”等諸多問(wèn)題。而近些年來(lái)，國(guó)產(chǎn)品牌自主創(chuàng)新能力不斷提升，拖拉機(jī)產(chǎn)品越來(lái)越智能，拖拉機(jī)產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)也越來(lái)越優(yōu)化，加上2021-2023年階段農(nóng)機(jī)購(gòu)置補(bǔ)貼政策的調(diào)整優(yōu)化，筆者相信，拖拉機(jī)市場(chǎng)會(huì)朝著良性方向發(fā)展，在“良幣驅(qū)逐劣幣”下，“大馬拉小車”問(wèn)題終會(huì)解決。

上一篇： 2020-2021年農(nóng)機(jī)行業(yè)新品發(fā)布盤點(diǎn)（大型農(nóng)機(jī)篇）

下一篇：2020年農(nóng)機(jī)行業(yè)事件回顧（下）

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