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今年玉米價(jià)格漲幅較大是何原因?后續(xù)是否還會(huì)上漲?

2020-12-25 11:29:52 來源:農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng)整理發(fā)布 閱讀量:41315 評(píng)論

導(dǎo)讀:年玉米仍是豐收年,價(jià)格適當(dāng)上漲后農(nóng)民種糧收益增加,預(yù)計(jì)明年發(fā)展玉米生產(chǎn)的積極性也將有所提高,立足國內(nèi)保障玉米基本自給,是有堅(jiān)實(shí)基礎(chǔ)的,玉米價(jià)格持續(xù)大幅上漲的可能性不大。

  【農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng) 市場行情】 12月24日,農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部新聞辦公室舉行新聞發(fā)布會(huì),介紹當(dāng)前及元旦春節(jié)期間我國糧食和主要農(nóng)產(chǎn)品市場形勢、生產(chǎn)形勢,并回答記者提問。
 
  對(duì)于今年備受關(guān)注的三大主糧之一——玉米,農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部市場與信息化司司長唐珂表示,玉米是今年社會(huì)關(guān)注度高的糧食品種,也是三大主糧中產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈長、用途用廣的一個(gè)品種。糧食價(jià)格上漲主要是玉米上漲帶動(dòng)的,農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部對(duì)此進(jìn)行了持續(xù)的跟蹤分析,情況是這樣的。
 
  今年春節(jié)后,玉米價(jià)格開始恢復(fù)性上漲,5月底國家臨儲(chǔ)玉米競價(jià)銷售高成交、高溢價(jià),玉米價(jià)格繼續(xù)攀升,9月份新糧上市后小幅回落,之后再次上漲。11月份,玉米產(chǎn)區(qū)批發(fā)均價(jià)每斤1.2元,環(huán)比漲3.4%,同比漲29.7%,比年初漲了31.8%。目前價(jià)格水平雖然創(chuàng)6年來新高,但仍低于2014年9月份的歷史高價(jià)。推動(dòng)今年玉米價(jià)格持續(xù)上漲的因素有這么幾個(gè):
 
  一是生豬產(chǎn)能持續(xù)恢復(fù),下游玉米飼料加工需求向好,玉米消費(fèi)明顯增加;
 
  二是玉米當(dāng)年產(chǎn)需存在缺口,市場看漲預(yù)期增強(qiáng),資本炒作和貿(mào)易商囤糧加?。?br /> 
  三是東北部分地區(qū)玉米因臺(tái)風(fēng)倒伏,收獲成本每斤增加了近2毛錢,臺(tái)風(fēng)對(duì)玉米產(chǎn)量影響不大,主要是增加了收獲成本,因此農(nóng)民都希望賣個(gè)好價(jià)錢。
 

  11月中下旬以來,隨著玉米上市量增加,價(jià)格有所松動(dòng),呈逐步企穩(wěn)趨勢(目前東北玉米標(biāo)準(zhǔn)干糧收購價(jià)每斤1.13-1.19元,華北玉米收購價(jià)每斤1.25-1.30元,同比均高3毛錢左右,比前期略有回落)。據(jù)國家糧食和物資儲(chǔ)備局監(jiān)測,截至11月30日,黑龍江、山東等11個(gè)主產(chǎn)區(qū)累計(jì)收購玉米3446萬噸。從收購進(jìn)度可以看出,當(dāng)前玉米市場購銷兩旺,只要市場價(jià)格合適,農(nóng)民售糧進(jìn)度就會(huì)加快,市場糧源不會(huì)緊張。希望廣大農(nóng)民朋友把握好售糧時(shí)機(jī),爭取賣個(gè)好價(jià)錢,貿(mào)易商和加工企業(yè)也不宜過度惜售囤糧。
 
  今年玉米仍是豐收年,價(jià)格適當(dāng)上漲后農(nóng)民種糧收益增加,預(yù)計(jì)明年發(fā)展玉米生產(chǎn)的積極性也將有所提高,立足國內(nèi)保障玉米基本自給,是有堅(jiān)實(shí)基礎(chǔ)的,玉米價(jià)格持續(xù)大幅上漲的可能性不大。
 
  本文由農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng)(balpclean.com)整理發(fā)布,資料來源:農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部,如有侵權(quán)或異議請(qǐng)聯(lián)系我們。
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