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今年第三季度小麥和玉米價(jià)格持續(xù)走高，后期走勢(shì)如何？農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部這樣回答

2020-10-16 14:57:44 來(lái)源：農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng)整理發(fā)布 閱讀量：30083 評(píng)論

導(dǎo)讀：相關(guān)負(fù)責(zé)人表示，后期隨著秋糧大量上市、玉米價(jià)格企穩(wěn)，小麥價(jià)格將保持平穩(wěn)走勢(shì)。

　　【農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng) 市場(chǎng)行情】 近日，農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部市場(chǎng)與信息化司有關(guān)負(fù)責(zé)人就三季度我國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)運(yùn)行情況答記者問(wèn)。
 
　　關(guān)于小麥價(jià)格方面，相關(guān)負(fù)責(zé)人表示，今年新麥上市后，受多重利好因素支撐，小麥價(jià)格穩(wěn)中走高。一是湖北、安徽、江蘇、河南四省先后啟動(dòng)小麥低收購(gòu)價(jià)執(zhí)行預(yù)案，形成底部支撐。二是玉米價(jià)格上漲幅度較大，小麥飼用需求增加，對(duì)價(jià)格拉動(dòng)明顯。三是受疫情影響，市場(chǎng)看漲預(yù)期增強(qiáng)，部分種糧大戶(hù)和貿(mào)易商惜售，短期糧源偏緊。總體來(lái)看，小麥價(jià)格上漲是生產(chǎn)成本連年上升、糧價(jià)多年低迷情況下的恢復(fù)性上漲，漲幅并不是很大，屬正常波動(dòng)區(qū)間。7月中旬以來(lái)，國(guó)家加大低收購(gòu)價(jià)小麥投放量，市場(chǎng)糧源供應(yīng)充足，部分貿(mào)易商惜售心態(tài)松動(dòng)，小麥價(jià)格已逐步趨穩(wěn)。9月份，鄭州糧食批發(fā)市場(chǎng)普通麥每斤1.20元，環(huán)比漲0.7%，漲幅比上月回落2.9個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，同比高5.9%。目前我國(guó)小麥全社會(huì)庫(kù)存超過(guò)一年的消費(fèi)量，政府儲(chǔ)備調(diào)節(jié)能力強(qiáng)，完全能夠保障口糧市場(chǎng)供給，后期隨著秋糧大量上市、玉米價(jià)格企穩(wěn)，小麥價(jià)格將保持平穩(wěn)走勢(shì)。由于國(guó)內(nèi)行情較好，小麥進(jìn)口增幅明顯。據(jù)海關(guān)統(tǒng)計(jì)，1-8月，我國(guó)小麥累計(jì)進(jìn)口數(shù)量為499萬(wàn)噸，同比增長(zhǎng)137%。但進(jìn)口量增加并不多，進(jìn)口占我國(guó)產(chǎn)量和消費(fèi)量的比重依然很低，而且以?xún)?yōu)質(zhì)強(qiáng)筋、弱筋小麥為主，用于品種調(diào)劑，滿(mǎn)足日益增長(zhǎng)的焙烤類(lèi)食品加工需求，對(duì)我國(guó)小麥?zhǔn)袌?chǎng)運(yùn)行的影響很小。

　　玉米方面，今年玉米播種面積基本穩(wěn)定，長(zhǎng)勢(shì)總體較好，8月底9月初，東北產(chǎn)區(qū)連續(xù)遭受三次臺(tái)風(fēng)，部分地區(qū)玉米出現(xiàn)倒伏，但臺(tái)風(fēng)發(fā)生時(shí)多數(shù)地區(qū)的玉米生長(zhǎng)已進(jìn)入蠟熟中后期，產(chǎn)量已經(jīng)基本形成，而且未受災(zāi)地區(qū)長(zhǎng)勢(shì)較好，預(yù)計(jì)今年玉米總產(chǎn)穩(wěn)中有增。從玉米市場(chǎng)走勢(shì)看，今年以來(lái)受需求增長(zhǎng)拉動(dòng)和市場(chǎng)炒作因素影響，玉米價(jià)格持續(xù)上漲，8月份產(chǎn)區(qū)和銷(xiāo)區(qū)平均批發(fā)價(jià)分別達(dá)到每噸2270元和2444元，是2016年玉米收儲(chǔ)制度改革以來(lái)的新高，但進(jìn)入9月之后，隨著新玉米逐步上市，以及臨儲(chǔ)拍賣(mài)玉米的陸續(xù)出庫(kù)，價(jià)格已經(jīng)表現(xiàn)出一定的季節(jié)性回落態(tài)勢(shì)，9月產(chǎn)區(qū)月平均批發(fā)價(jià)為每噸2222元，環(huán)比跌2.1%。后期隨著主產(chǎn)區(qū)玉米上市量逐步增加，臨儲(chǔ)玉米出庫(kù)，貿(mào)易商加快出售手中存糧，以及進(jìn)口玉米和替代品陸續(xù)到港，玉米市場(chǎng)供應(yīng)形勢(shì)將逐漸轉(zhuǎn)向?qū)捤?，短期?nèi)價(jià)格有望保持穩(wěn)定或小幅回落。
 
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上一篇： 生豬生產(chǎn)持續(xù)恢復(fù)，今年秋糧有望再獲豐收

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