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2016年糧食形勢淺析以及價格預(yù)測

2016-02-25 09:34:58 來源:中國農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng) 作者:魏亞伯 閱讀量:12105 評論

導(dǎo)讀:當(dāng)下,全國春耕工作以及由南向北展開,去年的糧食價格下跌依然記憶猶新,很多農(nóng)民尤其是玉米農(nóng)戶損失較大,面對新一年的春耕,今年的田要怎么種呢?

      【中國農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng) 本站原創(chuàng)】過完元宵,傳統(tǒng)的年也就算過完了,當(dāng)下,全國春耕工作以及由南向北展開,去年的糧食價格下跌依然記憶猶新,很多農(nóng)民尤其是玉米農(nóng)戶損失較大,面對新一年的春耕,今年的田要怎么種呢?別急,筆者將從近的相關(guān)政策出發(fā),結(jié)合目前市場形勢,來簡單分析今年我國種植業(yè)的形勢。

      聚焦供給側(cè)改革

      農(nóng)業(yè)供給側(cè)改革在種植業(yè)上的體現(xiàn),有以下幾個方面:

      首先,是玉米種植面積減少。早在去年,農(nóng)業(yè)部就曝出要在5年內(nèi)減少玉米種植面積5000萬畝,重點在劃定的鐮刀灣地區(qū),而2016年計劃的目標(biāo)是1000萬畝;但日前黑龍江提出今年要減少玉米種植面積1000萬畝,一方面黑龍江是玉米種植大省,另一方面,黑龍江去年被曝出大面積種植轉(zhuǎn)基因玉米。無論怎樣,農(nóng)業(yè)部的任務(wù)不可能由黑龍江一個省份來完成,那么照此推斷,今年全國玉米種植面積將減少1000~2000萬畝。

      據(jù)粗略統(tǒng)計,2015年全國玉米種植面積是55410萬畝,這一減相當(dāng)于回到了2014年左右的水平。因此,玉米價格今年應(yīng)當(dāng)可以觸底反彈。

      其次是土豆主糧化。土豆主糧化已不是新鮮事,但2月23日,農(nóng)業(yè)部正式發(fā)布的《關(guān)于推進(jìn)馬鈴薯產(chǎn)業(yè)開發(fā)的指導(dǎo)意見》,又將這一話題推上熱點?!兑庖姟穼ⅠR鈴薯作為主糧產(chǎn)品進(jìn)行產(chǎn)業(yè)化開發(fā),并提出,到2020年,土豆種植面積增加到1億畝。

      近幾年土豆的種植面積一直維持在8000~9000萬畝,照此預(yù)計,今年的土豆種植面積不會增加太多,而且我國的土豆并不缺,土豆主糧化的目標(biāo)在于戰(zhàn)略貯備意義。因此,土豆價格不會有大的起伏,但適合主糧加工的土豆品種或許將受熱捧!

      再次是小麥大米種植要維穩(wěn)。小麥和大米是我國的主要糧食作物,關(guān)乎糧食安全,因此這二者的生產(chǎn)一定要穩(wěn)定。早在去年主糧價格下跌的時候,國家發(fā)改委就發(fā)布了2016年小麥低收購價政策,2016年生產(chǎn)的小麥(三等)低收購價為1.18元/斤,保持2015年水平不變。而今年,據(jù)農(nóng)業(yè)專家分析,今年冬小麥苗情基礎(chǔ)差于上年,尤其是江淮地區(qū)晚播麥個體偏弱、群體不足。據(jù)農(nóng)業(yè)部農(nóng)情調(diào)度,11個小麥主產(chǎn)省冬小麥一類苗比例44.3%,同比下降5.1個百分點。為此,農(nóng)業(yè)部要求適當(dāng)回復(fù)北方春小麥的種植。水稻的種植則是在單產(chǎn)上下功夫,種植面積變化不會太大。

      農(nóng)情調(diào)度顯示,預(yù)計今年冬小麥播種面積3.4億畝,與上年基本持平。這一點也驗證了今年小麥的種植形勢與去年相似。因此,小麥玉米的價格會維持在穩(wěn)定區(qū)間內(nèi),不會有大的波動。

      厄爾尼諾持續(xù)影響

      據(jù)《歐盟動態(tài)》2月17日消息,聯(lián)合國有關(guān)機(jī)構(gòu)表示,厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象引發(fā)嚴(yán)重干旱和洪水,導(dǎo)致非洲南部、亞洲和拉美近一億人面臨糧食和飲水短缺。2016年世界范圍作物收成將繼續(xù)受到影響。聯(lián)合國糧農(nóng)組織和“饑荒早期預(yù)警系統(tǒng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)”發(fā)表聯(lián)合聲明說,厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象將對2016年非洲南部的作物收成和糧食安全產(chǎn)生災(zāi)難性后果。氣象學(xué)家表示,本次厄爾尼諾事件是35年來嚴(yán)重的,雖然預(yù)期未來6個月強(qiáng)度會減弱,但其對發(fā)展中國家農(nóng)業(yè)等領(lǐng)域的影響會持續(xù)兩年或更長。

      據(jù)此預(yù)計,2016年糧食或減產(chǎn),糧食市場或現(xiàn)波動,糧價有望走高。

      人民幣貶值阻擋國外糧食進(jìn)入

      人民幣貶值自去年始,一直沒有明顯的轉(zhuǎn)折,市場認(rèn)為,今年人民幣貶值仍舊是大概率事件。這樣一來,往年大量的廉價糧食涌入中國市場的現(xiàn)象將有所緩解,進(jìn)口糧連年增長的數(shù)據(jù)也將不再。

      這里要說明的是,近兩年來進(jìn)口糧占我國糧食總量的1/7左右。

      綜上所述,今年的糧食總產(chǎn)量預(yù)計不及去年,糧食連年增長的神話或被打破;而或迎來糧食危機(jī);人民幣貶值導(dǎo)致流入國內(nèi)的糧食將減少。進(jìn)而,國內(nèi)的糧食總量或從高點回落,達(dá)到農(nóng)業(yè)“去庫存”的目標(biāo),價格也會觸底反彈,但漲幅不大。

      回到今年糧食怎么種的話題上,在總體狀況穩(wěn)定、糧食價格沒有大幅上漲的情況下,提高農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的品質(zhì)、擴(kuò)大耕種規(guī)模、提升種植效率依舊是農(nóng)業(yè)增收的主要途徑。綠色農(nóng)業(yè)、規(guī)模農(nóng)業(yè)也將成為未來發(fā)展的主流!

(本文僅代表作者個人觀點,不夠成任何投資建議)

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